I can only presume that most of the population must have comforted themselves with excessive amounts of alcohol to try and negate the seemingly unremitting gloom that was aired throughout the holiday period. Soothsayers for the forthcoming year seemed to delight in dire warnings and casting airs of forthcoming disasters.

There is something terribly British about this, in that we are determined to assume the worst of events which I can only assume comes about on the basis that people love to be able to say one day “I told you so”. As we all know, our American cousins can take the opposite extreme all too often and not worry about whether the glass is half full or not but rather be demanding another glass: the British just moan that theirs is cracked.

I actually can take some encouragement from this, in that there is now so much bad news being accepted as reality, that the underlying nuggets are being ignored. Thus much of this bad news is being priced into the market and, rather than being so fearful about things going wrong (which of course we should still concerned about), we should be positioning ourselves for a more positive move in values and attitude. Now please don’t get too excited as this does not happen immediately - and for the time being be prepared for some stomach churning volatility, which in turn will “throw up” some fascinating opportunities. So build up some cash and suffer the switchback ride.

In reality many corporate values in public companies are not being measured by their individual company results and strengths, but rather being beaten about by the lack of credible political leadership and policy. Should this start to change then so will some of these valuations and, along with it, more importantly the sentiment which changes markets’ and investors’ attitudes.

So under these leaden skies there are in fact some shafts of light which should not be ignored. For example, we are definitely seeing an improving trend in the US. One can easily say of course that it may be still quite slow and coming from a low level, but the background noise is there. From unemployment, with some mild improvement through to even the dreadful housing markets there is even a sign here that possibly the worst may be over.

Obviously much will depend upon the final outcome of the election and so long as the Americans don’t select a nutter (although it is pleasing to see that some of the more eccentric candidates are already being whittled out) the unpleasant task of grappling with the debt and deficit will be pushed back to 2013.

The fear of China as a bubble is actually working to ensure that it probably doesn’t burst. The worst bubbles are those which we only identify post implosion. This nation has many more levers it can pull to try and ease some of the pressures of overvaluation, bad lending and unreliable banking. Equally it has already made clear that it will take action to try and stimulate the economy and that may well mean a further opportunity for consumer spending and certain imports of top brand goods (as well as the fakes) being in greater demand. Rather than direct government expenditure we may well see a change towards an encouragement for the Chinese consumer to spend more and increase domestic demand. This could be really quite a positive change.

Last week we saw the fears around the UniCredit rights issue rattle nerves around the European banking stocks. It seems inevitable that some of this already chipped crockery is going to become broken shards over the next few months as governments and central authorities step in to provide further support to certain banks and the banking system. All of this though should be put into the context of the authorities in the Eurozone gently nudging the members towards further and closer co-ordination as they feel their way to an eventual Euro resolution. It isn’t going to be pretty, it isn’t going to be easy, but it is achievable.

Not a whiff of cordite, but certainly a note of authoritarianism seems to be creeping across European politics. History shows us starkly as a reminder of the failure of political leadership when set against severe economic stress. Without clear and decisive leadership, the baying calls of the ultra right wing nationalist wolves can be heard throughout certain forests of Europe. From the “True Finns”, France’s National Front and the Dutch Freedom Party there seems to be a wave of interest in such parties. Add to this the eccentric and erratic behaviour of the increasingly autocratic Hungarian leader Orban and his Fidesz party and its links to the ultra-right Jobbik party, and we should all take note.

And finally...... Reuters note that in a sign of America's growing girth, “dude ranches” and hunting camps in the Northern Rockies are adding heavyweight horses and super-large saddles to seat swelling numbers of outsized clients.

With the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reporting that a third of U.S. adults and 17 percent of children are obese, Western wranglers and outfitters say they are doing all they can to accommodate the widening of waistlines and other anatomical areas.

"To put it bluntly, we call them the big-butt saddles," said Lee Hart, owner of Broken Hart Ranch in Montana. Hart and others said the 18-plus-inch saddles they now stock were all but non-existent 30 years ago, when just 15 percent of American adults were considered obese.

At that time, a 16.5-inch saddle would have been considered ample enough for a stout rider.

Guest ranches and outfitting operations also are bulking up on riding stock crossbred with draft horses -- weighing in at roughly 1,500 pounds -- to fit their super-sized customers.

"We have to seat 400 fat people every summer," said B.J. Hill, co-owner of Swift Creek Outfitters and Teton Horseback Adventures in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The operation has established a weight limit of 275 pounds (that’s over 19 stone!) for trail rides – poor wretched horses.

The extra-large animals and saddles come as other U.S. industries, including airlines and healthcare companies, have in recent years adopted policies or retrofitted equipment to address the rising ranks of plus-size people.

For example, Boston emergency services in 2011 unveiled an ambulance for the obese. The vehicle is equipped with a stretcher that can hold 850 pounds (60 stone) and a hydraulic lift with a 1,000-pound capacity to ensure the safety of the sick and stem back injuries among crews hoisting hefty patients.

What worries Hart of Broken Hart Ranch are clients who have stretched beyond the comfort-waist zone."I've got a 22-inch saddle, which is basically unheard of, and I've got people who will overflow all sides of it," he said. Eewwwww.

Salad dodgers.

Have a good week.

Justin Urquhart Stewart Director Seven Investment Management Limited