"The Long Good-Buy"

So what can we learn from the confusing world of the Greek debt crisis? Well at last everyone seems to have finally acknowledged that this is still a banking issue and not just a sovereign debt question. This has at least forced the powers-that-be into taking action to shore up the financial dykes. Dexia has crumbled first, and been supported, as it was last time around, and I suspect others will follow a similar path. This should be seen as a positive though as it does mean someone is doing something - even if it is somewhat tardy. In the mean time I am afraid it is still going to be a violently volatile time for equities.
In fact, I believe that the political leaders are quite right to take their time, to move at their own behest and not at catcalls coming from self-interested speculators and ill-informed media. If handled badly then the "vampire squids" will latch onto any weakness they perceive and turn a failure into a fiasco. That however is not an excuse for inaction, but rather a call for a show of firm leadership - please! Markets will stabilise not because of corporate results - they after all are generally looking quite positive - but when credible policies are seen to be being enacted.


For investors, in the interim, the appealing option is to probably pick up high quality dividend paying "dull" companies that fulfil continued demand - of healthcare and infrastructure to name but two - and which have had their prices pushed down. You may be happy hunkering down during the storms, but I would urge investors to keep their periscopes up!


What I think we can see is the potential for some fundamental restructuring in the international building blocks of the financial world. Perhaps this could therefore trigger a move to start a reconsideration of the old elements of the World Bank and the IMF?
Perhaps the planners at Bretton Woods that originally established the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), which today is part of the World Bank Group, could get their thinking caps on. At Bretton Woods one of the initiatives was the establishment of a new "shadow" currency called Special Drawing Rights (SDRs). Although not actually a currency, SDRs instead represent a claim to currency held by IMF member countries for which they may be exchanged. As such they can only be exchanged for Euros, Japanese Yen, UK Pounds, or US Dollars. SDRs in fact represent a potential claim on IMF member countries' non-gold foreign exchange reserve assets, which are usually held in those currencies. SDRs are allocated to countries by the IMF; private companies or individuals do not hold or use them.

 

So perhaps we are starting to see the first moves towards a new financial world order whereby the recognition of the financial reserves of the "new" powers in the world begin not just to be recognised but be utilised and applied. This could mean that we see a new "Bretton Woods" potentially coming together to reset the financial scales. The obvious candidate who would be most keen to be involved should of course be China, with its huge reserves and political intention for greater influence and power to reflect its new strength in this damaged capitalist world.


China, as has often been mentioned, is very keen to move away from its US$ dependence; hence its interest in trying to provide some support for the Euro as the second largest reserve currency. In due course no doubt they would love the Yuan to fulfil such a role but that is probably a few 5-year plans away.


Firstly the Chinese would love to see recognition of their position of a global economic power more equitably reflected in the ageing post-WW2 global financial structures, and the current Euro crisis and the re-emergence of the US deficit could just be the catalysts for such realignment.


Beware all Salad Dodgers......

I think last year I wrote about the great opportunities of a so called "fat tax". So reading of Denmark following on from Hungary's initiatives in this area found me positively salivating. The Danes have levied a charge of DKr16 (£1.85) per kilogram of saturated fat in a product. This is obviously bad news for "salad dodgers" everywhere, but perhaps a chance for their abused bodies to be offered some relief from the fatty onslaught of the past few decades.


Actually this has a range of opportunities from helping the general health and welfare of the population, and even one day impacting on our healthcare bill, through to also be a nice little earner for the government. But why are we so fussed about just fat? Sugar and salt I understand are just as culpable in our poor levels of health if taken in too high a quantity. So a combined health encouragement toll could have thus a broader benefit for the nation. The argument against this is that this affects the poorest in society, in that presumably those cheaper foods have higher proportions of such content? Then we should ask the question "why?" If in fact it is that the people don't or can't cook then that may be one thing, but if they are just being lazy and stuffing pizzas and hamburgers then that is a different issue. I would like to see the evidence rather than just the populist claims. Lettuce wait and see (sorry).


And finally......... Nestlé, one of the world's biggest makers of pet food, has launched the first television commercial designed especially for dogs, using a high-frequency tone to grab their attention. "Dogs' hearing is twice as sharp as humans. They can pick up frequencies which are beyond our range and they are better at differentiating sounds," said George Sanders, a nutrition expert at Nestlé Purina PetCare in Germany.


Nestlé asked experts in pet behaviour in the United States to research what would appeal to dogs and used the results to create the 23-second commercial for its Beneful dog food brand. The advert, to be screened on Austrian television, features a tone similar to a dog whistle, which humans can barely hear, as well as an audible "squeak" like the sound dogs' toys make and a high-pitched "ping." "So delicious, so healthy, so happy," ends the commercial in German, which features a dog pricking up his ears.


Nestlé said in a statement the commercial follows an award-winning campaign in Germany that featured "sniffable" posters to attract dogs. There is obviously value in the "Pooch Pound".


Presumably this could be also extended to "most popular lamp post" advertising and a canine version of "rear of the year". Actually not a pleasant thought.

Have a good week.


Justin A. Urquhart Stewart Director Seven Investment Management Limited

 
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