So many negatives – but can you still be positive? Unless you have been hibernating (which I have to say is becoming increasingly an attractive option each Winter) you will all know the list of headline problems and fears around the globe. From the ‘Arabian Spring’ to the appalling natural catastrophes as well as our own man made dangers, we could easily fill a book of worries.

Yet when you compare the reaction of many of the markets – equity, fixed interest, commodities and foreign exchange – the price movements hardly reflected the hyperbole of the headlines. Even where there were dramatic drops, as in the Japanese equity indices, the bounce backs were remarkably swift considering the gravity of the events. So does this reflect a level of complacency amongst investors, or just a view that, despite their fearful nature, these events were not seen as the instigator of another global financial crisis – as yet!

Certainly there was the expected level of investor fear from some of the initial falls in Japan, and much of that was as a result of some media commentary which almost seemed to be painting us teetering on the edge of Armageddon. Maybe they will be right one day and if so there is nothing that anyone will be able to do about it anyway. Thus for most investors all that they required was some reasonable reassurance, and that they should be looking through the short term fears to longer term returns. Once received, much of their concerns were alleviated.
There are of course still many snake pits and financial fiascos ahead of us, but they should be regarded as, if not business as usual, then at least not wholly surprising.

Pages and pages of worthy Budget commentary have already been provided by the industry from sharper blades than I however, I would add just a couple of comments.

Firstly in delivery. All Chancellors in their speech address the bear pit in the Commons, but frankly that counts for little other than to get a pat on the back and a few ‘yahoos’ from badly behaved members. The main audience is via the popular media and this is where young Osborne seems to have most difficulty. It’s not so much the numbers of pluses and minuses of how many pence everyone is better or worse off by each week, because in reality the numbers are inevitably very small. It is instead about that key word for all economies – confidence.

It is of course a very difficult balance to ensure that you are neither depressingly pessimistic nor ludicrously optimistic, but it is vital that the viewers and listeners come away with a feeling that their lives are safe in your hands and that in five years’ time things should be better than they are now.

1p off a litre of petrol and not having to pay a fuel tax that doesn’t yet exist was never going to get the juices going.
Secondly, well done Chancellor for the initiatives around EISs, VCTs and Enterprise zones as well as the other R&D incentives for smaller businesses. Obviously we will have to wait for the detail, but such areas will all be helpful in giving the SME sector further confidence. We will still need to ensure the banking system is working effectively but at least these initiatives could all help attract further investment.

The explosions at the Japanese nuclear power plant, although appalling, have certainly succeeded in frightening a mostly uneducated world about nuclear power plants. I had the dubious benefit of being stuck in bed as the disaster unfolded, and thus had to watch an astonishing array of instant nuclear ‘experts’ being wheeled on, which must have stretched even the most experienced journalist’s black book of contacts. To complement these wise coves we also had endure their expert knowledge which seemed more often than not to contradict the previous commentator, and I for one ended up being completely confused.

Nuclear nerves flowed faster than the reactor water and it did not take long for seemingly sane people comparing the potential for own our next generation of nuclear plants with the ageing equipment in Fukushima. Sadly no one asked the question of what chance there was of Britain building a plant with 30 year old nuclear technology and equipment on a major seismic fault? Answer of course – none.

I do wish someone had also shown the pictures of last Winter showing our new fashion of totally static power windmills during the coldest part of that season. Frankly I found more activity in my fridge than most of those statuesque edifices. Admittedly you wouldn’t have been contaminated, but you could have died of hypothermia unless someone remembered to switch on the standby diesel generators at twice the cost.

Time to dust off the old plans for thermal power from Iceland – no wind necessary, no toxic man-made emissions, just mother earth’s warm heart, a long pipe and a very large kettle.

A shaft of light back to a different era - shortly there are going to be some quite enthusiastic celebrations of the former leader of the USSR, Mikhail Gorbachev’s 80th birthday. As part of some programmes around this I was speaking to a couple of Russian journalists who remarked on one of the key differences they remembered between labour and employment in the West and the Soviet Union. They remembered how you would expect to be arrested if you were not at work without good reason and that it was your duty to do so and the state’s duty to provide it – as opposed to the West where they were astonished in those days to find that some were paid not to work, with no duty to work and no obligation to offer it! Happy Birthday, Mr. Gorbachev.

And finally...........from Reuters - A rail company has tried to tackle the problem of overcrowding on its trains by making its seats so narrow that more than half of passengers cannot fit into them, while many are left in pain, an MP said.

Penny Mordaunt, Conservative MP for Portsmouth North, told Parliament that commuters travelling on South West Trains between London and Portsmouth had to squeeze into hard seats measuring 43 cm with no arm rests or spaces between them.

"It seems that South West Trains expects its passengers not only not to work while travelling in standard class but not to have elbows either," she said, adding that the cramped conditions had forced some passengers to seek medical attention.

A report commissioned by South West Trains found 59 percent of passengers could not fit into the seats on its class-450 carriages when their elbows were taken into account.

"The fact that spaces for people to sit are provided does not mean that people have space to sit down," Mordaunt said.
She said seats on South West Trains were so narrow that when she attempted to squeeze three colleagues into the space allocated by the train provider, one would have been 90 percent in the aisle.

A spokeswoman for Stagecoach, which owns South West Trains, defended the seats, saying they were "ergonomically sound" and complied with legislation.

"Our customer feedback shows that getting a seat is high on the list of priorities for our passengers” she said.

But let’s go further – why not have shelves as well as seats? These could be marketed as ‘high level rail flatbeds’. Or have hooks with hangers so that you can rest whilst being suspended from the side of the train – the inside of course, although we could consider an external ‘suspended seating’ service during Summer months?

Who needs High Speed Rail when we have we have High-density Sardine Rail? Surely we must have an unassailable global lead in this area?

Have a good week.

Justin A. Urquhart Stewart Director Seven Investment Management Limited